Leadership and the Crisis of Confidence
Thesis Leaders who initiate God-driven change will inevitably face a crisis of confidence, and their faithfulness depends not on avoiding the crisis but on turning to God in prayer, purifying their motives, and anchoring themselves in right doctrine about suffering.
The shape of the argument
36 units across exposition, application, illustration, theological claim, and conclusion. The pastor's argument is built from these moving parts.
- personal story · unit #14 — The pastor uses a humorous anecdote about a husband boycotting Shake Shack to illustrate how even small leadership decisions provoke cost and potential complaint. The story makes the six-Cs pattern tangible in everyday life.
- hypothetical · unit #20 — The pastor gives a hypothetical illustration of a pastor who decides to preach against the congregation's sins, provoking the six-Cs pattern culminating in a crisis of confidence. The illustration makes the pattern tangible in church leadership.
- historical example · unit #29 — The pastor recounts Charles Simeon's 49-year ministry marked by fierce opposition and his endurance through learning to settle in the Lord. Simeon's analogy of pushing through a thorny hedge captures the pain of leading through change, with Christ as the head already through and the body still enduring prickling legs.
- Leadership through God-driven change follows a six-stage pattern: call, change, conflict, cost, complaint, and crisis of confidence. unit #2
- Leaders who go along with the people's anxiety—even out of empathy—do great harm to the people they lead. unit #6
- In leadership, you must choose who you want mad at you: God or the people you love. unit #7
- The leader's own insecurity complicates the crisis of confidence but is preferable to false confidence. unit #8
- The leader's love for the people complicates the crisis of confidence because the leader feels the pain his leadership decisions cause. unit #9
- The leader's limited faith complicates the crisis of confidence because God rarely gives the leader much more faith than the people he leads. unit #10
- The crisis of confidence is inevitable in leadership and cannot be avoided; the leader must learn to handle it rightly. unit #11
- Prayer is the first step to overcoming the crisis of confidence because prayer is promising to give God the last word instead of letting anxiety rule. unit #13
- Leaders must distinguish between loving the people and loving to be loved by the people—the darker motive of people-pleasing causes leadership failure. unit #17
- The third step to overcoming the crisis of confidence is to fill your soul with right doctrine—Moses' theology was deficient when he accused God of doing evil. unit #22
- The right question is 'how long,' not 'why,' and the answer is always 'a little while'—both ultimately and often practically. unit #24
- Trials are a normal part of the Christian life—following God brings opposition, and leaders should expect complaints from people going through hardship. unit #26
"I am in great measure a child of my times. And one of the pervasive marks of our times is emotional fragility. I feel it as though it hangs in the air we breathe. We are easily hurt. We pout and mope easily. We break easily. Our marriages break easily. Our faith breaks easily. Our happiness breaks easily. And our commitment to the church breaks easily. We are easily disheartened, and it seems we have little capacity for surviving and thriving in the face of criticism and opposition." — John Piper (unit #3)
"When historians list the character traits of the last third of the 20th century, commitment, constancy, tenacity, endurance, patience, resolve and perseverance will not be on that list. The list will begin with an all consuming interest in self esteem. It will be followed by the subheadings of self assertiveness and self enhancement and self realization. And if you think that you are not at all a child of your times, just test yourself to see how you respond in the ministry or leadership when people reject your ideas. We need help here." — John Piper (unit #28)
"My dear brother, we must not mind a little suffering for Christ's sake. When I am getting through a hedge, if my head and shoulders are safely through I can bear prickling my legs. Let us rejoice in remembrance that our Holy Head has surmounted all his suffering and triumphed over death. Let us follow him patiently. We shall soon be partakers of his victory." — Charles Simeon (unit #29)
Full transcript
0 · The pastor sets the frame by acknowledging a shift in direction from his initial plan, landing on the theme of leadership as the dominant concern of Exodus 5
And if you'll open your Bibles to the book of Exodus, we're going to be in chapter five today. Exodus, chapter five. Earlier this week I made mention to a number of guys that I thought we would be talking today about how to keep focusing on God even in busy times. And when I got through and started looking into the text more deeply, I realized, you know, that's just not there to the extent that I thought it was. And so rather than strain that theme and be all over the Bible today, I thought I would share with you what I think is the more dominant theme of the text. And that simply has to do with leadership, which seems to be God's good and perfect plan to have us land on leadership today. You know, father is really just a synonym in many respects for the word leader, for the function of leader.
1 · The pastor identifies a biblical pattern of leadership through change that extends beyond Exodus into Scripture and into all of life
I want to show you today a pattern that appears first here as far as I can see, but continues throughout the book of Exodus, throughout the Bible. And actually just this pattern continues throughout all times in which leadership takes a group of people through some sort of God driven change. And I'm going to first kind of just lay out the outline to you and then show it to you in this particular text.
2 · The pastor lays out the six-stage pattern of leadership through change: call, change, conflict, cost, complaint, and crisis of confidence
So as far as I could see, this pattern can be described as the six Cs of leading through change. The six Cs, six words that start with C related to leading through change. And this is going to help you men lead your families. This is going to help you lead in church contexts. This is going to make you all better church members. And even in work context, so much of this still applies because remember, even if you're leading in some secular, so called secular business, you're still God's man there. You're still God's leader there. So the six Cs that I think we see throughout Scripture are first, a call. The leader receives a plan from God. The second one would be change. He begins to lead his followers into the new state. Remember what we said about the Exodus pattern, that the Exodus pattern is just God moving people out of an old state that's not so great into a new state that's better. And there's usually some middle state which we typically think of as the wilderness. That's the Exodus pattern. We see that all over the Bible. Well, this is part of that. The six C's I'm bringing to you is sort of how this takes place. First, the leader receives a plan from God. Secondly, he begins to lead his followers into the new state that God has revealed. But A conflict emerges because there is always some force at work in the situation that prefers the status quo, and that force is provoked. At this point, the followers who you're trying to lead begin to feel the friction. A cost begins to be revealed for the change itself. And from there, you have some various version of insubordination or triangulation. The people you're leading begin to complain, either to you or behind your back. And then, finally, there is a crisis of confidence for the leader. The leader begins to doubt everything about the mission, about himself, about whether he's the man or the woman, so on and so forth. So this is a pattern we see not only in Scripture, but also in life. And we're going to focus mostly on this crisis of confidence that we see in our text.
3 · The pastor diagnoses contemporary culture as marked by emotional fragility and leadership failure
Last week, I posted a chronological timeline of all of the church history biographies that John Piper delivered over the span of more than 20 years. And I want to read you something he wrote back in 1989 as he covered the biography of a pastor named Charles Simeon. He wrote this. Piper wrote this. I am in great measure a child of my times. And one of the pervasive marks of our times is emotional fragility. I feel it as though it hangs in the air we breathe. We are easily hurt. We pout and mope easily. We break easily. Our marriages break easily. Our faith breaks easily. Our happiness breaks easily. And our commitment to the church breaks easily. We are easily disheartened, and it seems we have little capacity for surviving and thriving in the face of criticism and opposition. And then he says, we need help here. Indeed, we do need help here. We're seeing at every level of leadership in our world a failure of nerve. And to be quite blunt, this is why we can't have nice things. It's not because the followers respond the way they do. It's not because the world responds the way it does. Those things are just part of the process. It's not even that the leader experiences a crisis of confidence when all of this goes down. It's simply that the leaders that we have asked to take care of us in our institutions, in our families, are not passing successfully, this crisis of confidence. So rather than emerge successful from this crisis of confidence, they compromise, they turn back, they give up, they slam the dopamine button and have an affair with the secretary or whatever. This is why we can't have nice things now.
4 · The pastor walks through Exodus 3-6 demonstrating the six Cs in action: Moses receives the call, initiates change, enters conflict with Pharaoh, watches the people pay the cost, endures their complaints, and experiences a crisis of confidence
Exodus 5 and 6. Well, really, Exodus 3:6 shows this exact same pattern. In Exodus chapter 3 and 4, Moses receives the call. In Exodus 4:29 through 5:1, he initiates the change. And then that change brings him into conflict with Pharaoh's need for the status quo. That's Exodus 5:2,5. For instance, in verse 2, after Moses says, let my people go, Pharaoh, who has an interest in the status quo, says, who is the Lord, that I should obey his voice and let Israel God, I do not know the Lord, and moreover, I will not let Israel go. And then he says in verse four. But the king of Egypt said to them, moses and Aaron, why do you take the people away from their work? Get back to your burdens. Burdens is the Hebrew word for free labor, slavery. So Pharaoh's status quo is, you're threatening my free labor force, right? Because of this conflict, we now move into the cost. Pharaoh fights back, pushes back by inflicting a great cost on the followers. And that's found in verses 6 through 19. Essential nugget of what he's doing there is found in verse seven. He says to the leaders of the slave force, you shall no longer give the people straw to make bricks as in the past. Let them go and gather straw for themselves. This had the effect of really just doubling the amount of work that these slaves were already going through. And it was already difficult. So the burden just doubles with Moses introduction of this new plan. A conflict that arises with Pharaoh, and now the people are paying the cost. Next step is that the people grumble and complain to Moses. This is found in verses 20 and 21. They met Moses and Aaron, who were waiting for them as they came out from Pharaoh. They said to them, the Lord, look on you and judge you, because you have made a stink in the sight of Pharaoh and his servants and have put a sword in their hand to kill us. One of the hard things about enduring this particular moment is that the aggrieved followers always invoke the Lord as if he's on their side. And this is one of the things that causes the crisis in confidence. So from the complaint comes the crisis of confidence. And Moses has this crisis in verses 22 through 23. Then Moses turned to the Lord and said, o Lord, why have you done evil to this people? Why did you ever send me for? Since I came to Pharaoh to speak in your name, he has done evil to this people, and you have not delivered your people at all. This is the process we see throughout all of life. When a leader wants to lead, they've been given a vision from God. They perhaps even enter into this whole thing reluctantly, which we'll talk about in a moment. They Introduce the change. The change provokes the status quo. There's a conflict with someone who has invested themselves in the status quo. That conflict produces a cost. The people begin to suffer. They then complain or criticize the leader, either to his face or behind his back. And this all winds up back on the leader's lap, and he has a crisis of confidence. Now, in this case, this situation goes well, and we're going to talk about why it goes well. It goes well because God is gracious. Like, that's the summary. But it goes well. And God responds to all of this by saying in chapter six to Moses, say therefore to the people of Israel, I am the Lord, and I will bring you out from under the burdens of the Egyptians, and I will deliver you from slavery to them, and I will redeem you with an outstretched arm, and with great acts of judgment, I will take you to be my people, and I will be your God. And you shall know that I am the Lord, your God, who has brought you out from under the burdens of the Egyptians. And he says, go tell the people this, and we'll return back to that section of the text in a moment. So Moses does. He goes to the people in verse nine, chapter six, and says, moses spoke thus to the people of Israel, but they did not listen to Moses because of their broken spirit and harsh slavery. So the people have been effectively demoralized. And now Moses and Aaron stand alone with nobody but the Lord. This is the loneliness of leadership. They are sandwiched between Pharaoh's hard heart and the people's broken spirit. But in this case, they press on.
5 · The pastor gives three biblical examples where leaders failed the crisis of confidence: Aaron with the golden calf, Saul with the premature sacrifice, and Abraham with Hagar
Now, there are other times we see this pattern in Scripture where it doesn't turn out well. One of those would be with Aaron and the golden calf from Exodus 20:32. Moses is sent up to the mountain, and the people are told to assemble at the foot of the mountain and to consecrate themselves and to abstain from sexual relations during the 40 days and 40 nights in which Moses is gathered before the Lord. So there's a call to wait. Aaron is the one that's supposed to lead this call, to police its fulfillment, if you will. The conflict is with the people's own lack of peace, their own struggle to be still. The cost is they have to remain in a consecrated state. Their behaviors have to change. They have to abstain from sexual relations during this time. This brings up complaints and a crisis of leadership emerges for Aaron. And Aaron folds. You can see this pattern also in 1st Samuel 13 with Saul. This is actually what gets Saul kicked out of the throne or off the throne. The people want a sacrifice offered before they go to battle. Saul is told to wait for seven days until Samuel joins him. Samuel is delayed. He doesn't get there in seven days. Saul takes this as just carte blanche, permission to offer the sacrifice on his own. And he does that because the people are grumbling and anxious. He goes with their anxiety and we don't have a good situation there. This is also what happens with Abraham and Sarah and Hagar. Men pay attention. I don't need to say that in a way that singles out women as exceptionally sinful, but we probably do need, because of the day that we live in, to say that women do sin. They are not pure, victimless or just. They're not just victims. In this particular case, you have to understand that God's whole plan for Moses and Sarah was to have a baby. And it was Sarah who was technically infertile. So God's plan was added extra tension on Sarah, exposing her, pointing out her weakness. She appeared as a liability in this great plan to an extent that Abraham did not. And so it's her that suggests that we just take the spotlight off of me. I've got this maidservant named Hagar. Abraham has a crisis of confidence, but rather than go to the Lord, which we'll talk about in a moment, he listens to the voice of his wife, he goes along with the anxious flow and, you know, screws everything up.
Recent preaching context
The three sermons immediately preceding this one in the preaching schedule.
Discuss · apply · pray
6 questions for your group this week
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Moses went to Pharaoh with the people's hope fresh in his mind—they had believed him and bowed their heads in worship (Exodus 4:29-31). What happened between that moment of confidence and the despair he expresses in Exodus 5:22-23, and what does that sequence tell us about the nature of leadership trials?Exodus 4:29-31, 5:22-23→ Have you experienced a similar swing—where initial support or momentum suddenly collapsed under pressure? What did that teach you about your own faith?
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The sermon presents a six-stage pattern: call, change, conflict, cost, complaint, and crisis of confidence. Which of these stages do you find most difficult to navigate as a leader, and why does that particular stage shake your confidence?→ What would it look like to prepare yourself spiritually for that stage before you encounter it again?
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Exodus 5:20-21 shows the people turning their anger on Moses and Aaron rather than on Pharaoh. Why do you think leaders often absorb the anger that properly belongs elsewhere, and what is the cost of doing so?Exodus 5:20-21→ When have you felt tempted to soften your leadership or 'go along with' people's anxiety to avoid being the target of their frustration?
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The sermon identifies three complicating factors in the leader's crisis of confidence: insecurity, love for the people, and limited faith. Of these three, which one most accurately describes your own struggle, and how does it distort your judgment?→ How might acknowledging this particular weakness actually become a source of strength rather than disqualification?
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Moses accused God of doing evil (Exodus 5:22-23), but the sermon suggests his theology—not his circumstances—was deficient. What does Moses need to believe about God's character and purposes that he has apparently forgotten, and how does that connect to the promises God makes in Exodus 6:6-7?Exodus 5:22-23, Exodus 6:6-7→ Where do you find yourself falling into a similar accusation against God when leadership becomes costly?
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The sermon teaches that the right question is not 'why' but 'how long'—and the answer is always 'a little while.' How would it change your leadership this week if you stopped demanding to understand God's purposes and simply trusted His timeline?→ What is one specific decision or conflict you're facing where you need to practice this shift from 'why' to 'how long'?
5-day reading plan
This week we trace the leader's path through crisis of confidence—from the inevitable cost of faithfulness, through the interior complications that threaten to undo us, to the doctrinal and prayerful practices that anchor us in God's sovereignty when the people's anxiety threatens to overtake our own.
Moses receives the call to lead Israel out of Egypt and experiences the initial call and commissioning—yet these chapters reveal the beginning of a pattern we see unfold in the weeks ahead. The call itself contains seeds of the conflict to come: God warns Moses that Pharaoh will refuse, that signs will be needed, that resistance is embedded in the very mission. We are not surprised by the crisis of confidence when it arrives, because God has already sketched its outline in the call itself.
Pharaoh's response to Moses' request is not merely a refusal; it is calculated cruelty—he increases the people's burden while removing the means to fulfill it, forcing them to gather their own straw. The people's despair and anger follow naturally, and this is where a leader's empathy can become a snare. The cost of faithfulness is real and visible; the temptation is to ease that cost by backing down, by saying 'yes' to the people's anxiety rather than holding firm to God's promise. To love the people truly means sometimes to let them be angry with you.
The people confront Moses and Aaron with bitter words: 'The Lord look on you and judge, because you have made us stink in the sight of Pharaoh and his servants.' The choice is crystallized in a moment—Moses can mollify the people by retreating from God's assignment, or he can bear their anger while remaining faithful to the Lord's command. There is no third way. Every leader faces this binary choice repeatedly, and the crisis of confidence deepens because the people we love are genuinely suffering, and we feel the weight of their pain as if it were our own failure.
Isaiah promises that God keeps in perfect peace the one whose mind is stayed on Him, whose trust is fixed steadily on God. This is not the peace of certainty about outcomes, but the peace of a steadied will—a mind fixed on God rather than on the people's judgment or the leader's own wavering doubts. Moses' insecurity in his ability to lead is genuine; what saves him is not the elimination of that insecurity but the redirection of his trust upward, away from his own sufficiency and toward God's. A leader haunted by doubt but anchored in God is far safer than a leader flush with false confidence in himself.
Paul's command is radical: instead of anxiety, petition; instead of silence before God, thanksgiving and specific request. Prayer is not escape from the crisis but the posture in which we hand it to God and refuse to let our racing thoughts have the final say over our actions. As Moses learns to pray through the crisis rather than to speak first to the people, he learns to distinguish between his interior turmoil (which God can bear) and his public faithfulness (which the people require). The peace that guards our hearts follows, not because the crisis disappears, but because we have given God the authority to resolve it.
Prayer for Leaders in the Crisis of Confidence
Father, we come before you in awe of your sovereignty and your faithfulness to lead your people through impossibility. You are the God who called Moses to deliver Israel, and you are the God who calls leaders today—not because they are confident in themselves, but because you are confident in your purposes (Exodus 3–4). We confess that we who lead often find ourselves caught between the anxiety of the people we love and the call you have placed on our lives. We feel the weight of their complaints, and our hearts ache when our obedience to you causes them pain. We admit that our faith is often no greater than theirs, our insecurity whispers louder than your promises, and we are tempted—even out of empathy—to abandon the hard road you have set before us. In these moments, we are drawn to seek the comfort of being loved by our people rather than the harder love of leading them toward what is true.
Yet the gospel meets us in this crisis of confidence. In Christ, you have already paid the cost of faithful leadership—He endured the cross, despised the shame, and gave His life for those He loved (Hebrews 12:2). Through His obedience unto death, He secured our redemption and demonstrated that the Father's purposes are always worth the price. In the gospel, we are freed from the tyranny of needing to be loved by the people; we are already loved infinitely by the God whose opinion is the only one that matters.
We ask you, Father, to teach us to pray first—to promise you the last word instead of letting anxiety rule (Philippians 4:6–7). Fill our souls with right doctrine when our theology grows deficient under pressure. Help us to distinguish between loving the people and loving to be loved by them, so that we choose your will over their approval (John 12:43). Grant us the courage to let you be the one whose anger we fear, not the people we lead. And when the crisis of confidence comes—as we know it must—remind us that trials are not signs of your abandonment but of your refining work in us and through us (1 Peter 4:12–13).
We commit ourselves to you, O God. Make us faithful stewards of the leadership you have entrusted to us, and work in and through our weakness to accomplish your purposes. To you alone be the glory, now and forever. Amen.
When Good Leaders Make Things Harder
This prompt anchors in Moses' experience when his leadership to free the Israelites actually made their slavery worse before it got better. Help your family see that sometimes doing the right thing creates pain, and that's not a sign the leader was wrong—it's part of God's plan. Listen for your kids' instinct to blame the leader versus their growing understanding that faithfulness costs.
Moses told the people God would free them, and then Pharaoh made their work even harder. The people got angry at Moses and said he made things worse. If you were Moses, how would you feel when the people you're trying to help get mad at you? And how would you know whether to keep going or change your plan?
Leading Through Doubt Together
- What conviction or struggle did you feel most deeply during the sermon about your own role as a leader—whether in our home, work, or church—and where do you sense anxiety creeping in?
- When have you felt the tension between wanting to comfort each other and needing to tell each other a hard truth? How can we help each other choose God's approval over the other's comfort?
- What specific decision or conviction in your life right now needs prayer because you're uncertain whether people will understand or support it—and will you let me carry that before the Lord for you this week?
Exodus 5:22-23
Then Moses turned to the Lord and said, 'O Lord, why have you done evil to this people? Why did you ever send me? For since I came to Pharaoh to speak in your name, he has done evil to this people, and you have not delivered your people at all.'
Why this verse: This passage captures the heart of the crisis of confidence that Chris Oswald identifies as inevitable in God-driven leadership: Moses' complaint to God reveals how a leader's limited faith and empathy for suffering people can lead to accusation against God Himself. The sermon uses this moment to teach that the leader's first response must be prayer, and that the leader's theology will be tested and must be corrected by right doctrine.
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# Providence Community Church A church preaching expository sermons through the books of the Bible. ## Sermons - [Did Jesus Condemn Homosexuality? (2024-06-05)](/ProvidenceLenexa/sermons/2024/06/did-jesus-condemn-homosexuality) - [Monotheism Made Our World (2024-06-09)](/ProvidenceLenexa/sermons/2024/06/monotheism-made-our-world) - [How Does God View Political Entities? (2024-06-12)](/ProvidenceLenexa/sermons/2024/06/how-does-god-view-political-entities) - [Leadership and the Crisis of Confidence (2024-06-16)](/ProvidenceLenexa/sermons/2024/06/leadership-and-the-crisis-of-confidence) ## About - [About the church](/about) - [Plan a visit](/visit)
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